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References

Sources cited in this documentation, grouped by subject. They were collected on 1 October 2026. Preprints are linked by their arXiv page.

Figures from company announcements that have not been independently verified are not used in this documentation. Summaries of legislation rely partly on secondary sources and should be checked against the legal text.

Foundations

  • Bostrom, N. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press, 2014.
  • Good, I. J. "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine." Advances in Computers 6, 1965.
  • Chollet, F. "On the Measure of Intelligence." 2019. arXiv:1911.01547
  • LeCun, Y. "A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence." 2022. OpenReview

Scaling and compute

  • Kaplan, J. et al. "Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models." 2020. arXiv:2001.08361
  • Hoffmann, J. et al. "Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models." 2022. arXiv:2203.15556
  • Ho, A. et al. "Algorithmic Progress in Language Models." 2024. arXiv:2403.05812
  • Gundlach, H. et al. "On the Origin of Algorithmic Progress in AI." 2025. arXiv:2511.21622
  • Villalobos, P. et al. "Will we run out of data?" 2022. arXiv:2211.04325
  • Epoch AI. "Can AI scaling continue through 2030?" 2024. epoch.ai
  • Epoch AI. "Introducing the Frontier Data Centers Hub." 2025. epoch.ai
  • International Energy Agency. Energy and AI. 2025. iea.org
  • Stanford HAI. AI Index Report. 2025 and 2026. hai.stanford.edu
  • International Energy Agency. "Data centre electricity use surged in 2025." 2026. iea.org
  • Stanford HAI. AI Index Report 2025, Chapter 1. hai.stanford.edu

Reasoning, autonomy and learning

  • Wei, J. et al. "Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models." 2022. arXiv:2201.11903
  • Novikov, A. et al. "AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery." 2025. arXiv:2506.13131
  • Shojaee, P. et al. "The Illusion of Thinking." 2025. arXiv:2506.06941
  • Kwa, T. et al. "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks." 2025. arXiv:2503.14499
  • METR. "Time Horizon 1.1." 2026. metr.org
  • Ord, T. "Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?" 2025. arXiv:2505.05115
  • Becker, J. et al. "Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity." 2025. arXiv:2507.09089
  • Wijk, H. et al. "RE-Bench." 2024. arXiv:2411.15114
  • Behrouz, A. et al. "Titans: Learning to Memorize at Test Time." 2025. arXiv:2501.00663
  • Zweiger, A. et al. "Self-Adapting Language Models." 2025. arXiv:2506.10943
  • Kirkpatrick, J. et al. "Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks." 2017. arXiv:1612.00796
  • Assran, M. et al. "V-JEPA 2." 2025. arXiv:2506.09985
  • Mirzadeh, I. et al. "GSM-Symbolic." 2024. arXiv:2410.05229
  • Dziri, N. et al. "Faith and Fate: Limits of Transformers on Compositionality." 2023. arXiv:2305.18654
  • Kokotajlo, D. et al. "AI 2027." 2025. ai-2027.com
  • Google DeepMind. "AI achieves silver-medal standard solving International Mathematical Olympiad problems." 2024. deepmind.google
  • Google DeepMind. "Advanced version of Gemini with Deep Think officially achieves gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad." 2025. deepmind.google
  • METR. "How Does Time Horizon Vary Across Domains?" 2025. metr.org
  • Lewis, P. et al. "Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks." 2020. arXiv:2005.11401
  • Physical Intelligence. "π0.5: a Vision-Language-Action Model with Open-World Generalization." 2025. arXiv:2504.16054
  • Gemini Robotics Team. "Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World." 2025. arXiv:2503.20020
  • Lifland, E. et al. "Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027." 2026. aifutures.org
  • AI Impacts. "2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI." aiimpacts.org

Measurement

Alignment and interpretability

  • Hubinger, E. et al. "Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems." 2019. arXiv:1906.01820
  • Greenblatt, R. et al. "Alignment faking in large language models." 2024. arXiv:2412.14093
  • Hubinger, E. et al. "Sleeper Agents." 2024. arXiv:2401.05566
  • MacDiarmid, M. et al. "Natural Emergent Misalignment from Reward Hacking in Production RL." 2025. arXiv:2511.18397
  • Sharma, M. et al. "Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models." 2023. arXiv:2310.13548
  • Korbak, T. et al. "Chain of Thought Monitorability." 2025. arXiv:2507.11473
  • Elhage, N. et al. "Toy Models of Superposition." 2022. arXiv:2209.10652
  • Bricken, T. et al. "Towards Monosemanticity." 2023. transformer-circuits.pub
  • Templeton, A. et al. "Scaling Monosemanticity." 2024. transformer-circuits.pub
  • Ameisen, E. et al. "Circuit Tracing." 2025. transformer-circuits.pub
  • Sharkey, L. et al. "Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability." 2025. arXiv:2501.16496
  • Langosco, L. et al. "Goal Misgeneralization in Deep Reinforcement Learning." 2022. arXiv:2105.14111
  • Shah, R. et al. "Goal Misgeneralization: Why Correct Specifications Aren't Enough For Correct Goals." 2022. arXiv:2210.01790
  • OpenAI and Apollo Research. "Detecting and reducing scheming in AI models." 2025. openai.com
  • Lindsey, J. et al. "On the Biology of a Large Language Model." 2025. transformer-circuits.pub

Evaluation, control and security

Governance

Engineering

Economy and distribution

  • World Bank. Poverty and Inequality Update, Fall 2025. worldbank.org
  • World Inequality Report 2026. wid.world
  • FAO. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. fao.org
  • Acemoglu, D. "The Simple Macroeconomics of AI." NBER, 2024. nber.org
  • OpenResearch. Unconditional Cash Study. openresearchlab.org

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